Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 10.704726 13.126175 15.834002 19.066889 22.801130 26.958444 31.915328
2026-02-08 7.024306 10.019883 13.760762 18.690304 24.922997 32.445953 42.108285
2026-02-15 4.926861 7.985977 12.167818 18.119670 26.170426 36.468471 50.395536
2026-02-22 3.894272 7.034515 11.660080 18.658759 28.628992 41.946390 60.645958
2026-03-01 2.961545 5.966098 10.728555 18.365175 29.776813 45.625392 68.629398
2026-03-08 2.341678 5.228786 10.124879 18.393291 31.273235 49.764438 77.359324
2026-03-15 1.740739 4.354932 9.122750 17.622181 31.434439 51.932372 83.368291
2026-03-22 1.464053 4.021291 8.965360 18.158565 33.588134 57.061944 93.795348
2026-03-29 1.208610 3.657681 8.681419 18.420975 35.287921 61.565815 103.480131
2026-04-05 1.010813 3.363660 8.471269 18.767068 37.117191 66.327301 113.722171
2026-04-12 0.850445 3.109924 8.292248 19.132504 38.978344 71.201958 124.309299
2026-04-19 0.662612 2.717630 7.748778 18.733478 39.466924 73.889769 131.615842
2026-04-26 0.537511 2.469484 7.505759 18.952503 41.174059 78.822221 142.952768
2026-05-03 0.404548 2.136261 7.000298 18.582193 41.796257 82.029667 151.766111
2026-05-10 0.294278 1.815102 6.443839 18.014489 41.977402 84.472273 159.419760
2026-05-17 0.245850 1.702568 6.400226 18.551129 44.290782 90.656444 173.397947
2026-05-24 0.183162 1.485056 6.015387 18.258890 44.945962 93.968053 182.735429
2026-05-31 0.141772 1.334725 5.784138 18.286878 46.227499 98.427190 194.137517
2026-06-07 0.095751 1.109976 5.258572 17.519316 45.802361 99.776096 200.293090
2026-06-14 0.079391 1.050691 5.253614 18.053228 48.132656 106.244930 215.443012
2026-06-21 0.062620 0.968919 5.149559 18.314435 49.891309 111.721853 229.043019
2026-06-28 0.049910 0.902118 5.080927 18.658946 51.848654 117.643593 243.600689
2026-07-05 0.039744 0.842469 5.022654 19.022718 53.867774 123.756216 258.674882